November 8, 2006

General Political Overview

An unpopular war, poor approval ratings for the President and Governor and a Missouri-based stem cell initiative that gained national prominence became key factors in yesterday’s elections in Missouri. Although voter turnout did not reach the high numbers that were predicted, we did see an approximate 10% increase in turnout over the last off-presidential election in 2002. In all, 2,079,353 votes were cast in the U.S. Senate race. That compares with 1,877,620 votes cast in the Senate race in 2002 and 2,706,402 votes cast in the 2004 presidential election year. In the early morning hours, Missouri Democrats found good reason to celebrate victories from the top of the ticket and down. Missouri Republicans generally have expressed disappointment in the election results. An analysis of the State Senate finds that Republicans lost virtually every key close race. The House Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief, losing a net of only 5 seats.

U.S. Senate Race

Democrat State Auditor Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent by a vote of 1,028,375 (49.5%) to 986,007 (47.4%). Taking a lesson from her narrow defeat for Governor two years ago, McCaskill employed a strategy of concentrating her efforts in the more rural areas of the state, while betting that she could hold the traditional Democratic areas in Kansas City and St. Louis. Senator-Elect McCaskill did a particularly effective job in cutting her losses in Southwest Missouri. For example, she garnered 42.5% of the vote in Greene County (Springfield) where she only received 37% in her bid for governor in 2004. McCaskill and Talent combined spent $40 million on this race. Many pundits regard this race as one of the most negative political contests in Missouri's history. In truth, it was no more negative than four or five of the other key US Senate races around the nation. McCaskill's win will catapult her into the national limelight because her victory may make it possible for the Democrats to regain majority control of the Senate.

U.S. Congress

All of Missouri's incumbent U.S. House members handily won re-election.

State Auditor

In the only other statewide office race, Democrat Susan Montee handily defeated Republican Susan Thomas by a vote of 1,064,457 (52.8%) to 873,980 (43.4%) to replace McCaskill as Missouri State Auditor. Thomas had prevailed in a hard fought primary race against two other high profile candidates and many believed that she could not recover and regroup for the general election. This contest was marked by its negativism, with both candidates accusing each other of incompetence.

Missouri State Senate

Prior to yesterday's election, the Senate Republicans held the majority in the Senate with 23 seats to the Democrats' 11 seats. That margin was cut by 2 seats (21 Republicans and 13 Democrats) as the Democrats successfully defended Incumbent Frank Barnitz's seat (52.4% to Susie Snyders’ 47.6%) while winning in two other districts (18 and 22) previously held by Republicans. In the 18th District, Rep. Wes Shoemyer (D-Clarence) defeated Rep. Bob Behnen (R- Kirksville) by a vote of 51.7% to 48.3%. In the 22nd District, former Representative Ryan McKenna (D-Barnhart) defeated Incumbent Senator Bill Alter (R-High Ridge) by a vote of 60.7% to 39.3%). Alter had previously won a partial term in the Senate in a special election held last year.
Below is a listing of all of the Senate races:

• District 2 – (Incumbent) Senator Scott Rupp (R- St. Charles) defeated democrat challenger Representative Wayne Henke (D-Lincoln) 54.3% to 45.7%
• District 4 - Jeff Smith (D-St. Louis) – won the August primary election and was unopposed for the general. This seat was formerly held by Senator Pat Dougherty (D-St. Louis)
• District 6 – (Incumbent) Senator Carl Vogel (R-Cole) defeated Democrat challenger Ronald Bonar 67.9% to 32.1%.
• District 8 – (Incumbent) Senator Matt Bartle (R-Lee's Summit) defeated Democrat challenger Jason Norbury 58.5% to 41.5%
• District 10 – Jolie Justus (D-Jackson) defeated Republican challenger M.J. (Jerry) Mounts 26.5% to 73.5%. This seat was formerly held by Senator Charlie Wheeler (D-Jackson)
• District 12 – Brad Lager (R- Nodaway) defeated Democrat challenger James Neely 59.2% to 40.8%. This seat was formerly held by Senator David Klindt (R- Harrison)
• District 14 – (Incumbent) Senator Rita Days (D-St. Louis) was unopposed.
• District 16 – (Incumbent) Senator Frank Barnitz (D- Lake Spring) defeated Republican Susie Snyders 52.4% to 47.6%.
• District 18 – Wes Shoemyer (D-Monroe) defeated Republican challenger Bob Behnen 51.7% to 48.3%. This seat is a pickup for the democrats as this seat was formerly held by Senator John Cauthorn (R-Audrain).
• District 20 - (Incumbent) Dan Clemens (R- Webster) defeated Democrat challenger Barbie Kreider-Adams 64.5% to 35.5%.
• District 22 – Ryan Mckenna (D-Barnhart) defeated (Incumbent) Senator Bill Alter (R- High Ridge) 60.7% to 39.3%. This seat is a pickup for the democrats.
• District 24 – (Incumbent) Senator Joan Bray (D-St. Louis) defeated Republican challenger John Maupin 60.4% to 39.6%.
• District 26 – (Incumbent) Senator John Griesheimer (R-Washington) defeated Democrat challenger Gene Tyler 63.4% to 36.6%.
• District 28 – (Incumbent) Senator Delbert Scott (R- St. Clair) defeated Democrat challenger Mike Holzknecht 57.2% to 42.8%.
• District 30 – (Incumbent) Senator Norma Champion (R-Green) defeated Democrat challenger Doug Harpool 57.5% to 42.5%.
• District 32 – (Incumbent) Senator Gary Nodler (R-Jasper) defeated Democrat Kim Wright 63.5% to 36.5%.
• District 34 – (Incumbent) Senator Charlie Shields (R-Buchanan) defeated Democrat challenger David Mason 59.5% to 40.5%.

Missouri House of Representatives

All of the 163 House seats were up for grabs yesterday. Prior to the election, Republicans held the majority in the House with 97 seats to the Democrats' 66 seats. The Democrats picked up a gain of five seats yesterday, shifting the majority to 92 seats for the Republicans and 71 seats for the Democrats. There were ten House races where the percentage win was 2% or less.

There were several high profile races that most political junkies were closely watching.

Republican Incumbent Ed Robb (R-Columbia) defeated Democrat Challenger Jim Ritter by a vote of 50.6% to 49.4%. Robb and Ritter set a new record for spending on a House race with combined expenditures of almost $300,000.

Republican Incumbent Steve Hobbs (R-Mexico) defeated Democrat Challenger Skip Elkin (D-Columbia) by a vote of 52.3& to 47.7%.

Republican Incumbent Sally Faith (R-St. Charles) once again defeated Democrat Challenger Tom Green (D-St. Charles, garnering 50.1% of the vote.

Democrat Jason Grill defeated Republican John DeStafano with 60.1% of the vote to capture the open seat in Platte County (District 32).

Republican Incumbent Jim Lembke (R-St. Louis County) defeated Democrat Bob Burns, capturing 51.7% of the vote.

Republican Incumbent Kathlyn Fares (R-St. Louis County) narrowly won re-election against Democrat Challenger James Trout (50.6% - 49.4%).

Democrat Tom Todd (D-Kennett) defeated Republican Keith Mitchell (R-Kennett), by a vote of 58.6% to 41.4%, to take the open seat previously held by Republican Lanie Black.

Four House incumbents (2 Republicans/2 Democrats) lost their bid for re-election:

• District 8 – Incumbent Republican Kathy Chinn was defeated by Democrat Tom Shively51% to 49%).
• District 94 - Incumbent Democrat Jane Bogetto (D-Kirkwood) lost to Republican Rick Stream (51.3% - 48.7%). Bogetto had won a special election last year to fill out the term of the late Richard Byrd (R-Kirkwood).
• District 124 – Republican Incumbent Rex Rector (R-Harrisonville) lost his bid for a final term to Democrat Luke Scavuzzo. Scavuzzo received 8,063 votes to Rector's 8,042.
• District 132 - Democrat Incumbent Charles Dake (D-Aurora), who won in a special election earlier this year, lost his re-election bid to Don Ruzicka (R-Mt. Vernon) by a vote of 52.3% to 47.7%.

Ballot Measures

What's Next?

The House and Senate will be caucusing to elect leadership for the 94th Missouri General Assembly on Thursday, November 9. There are not likely to be any significant changes in Republican leadership positions. It is rumored that Senator Chuck Graham (D-Columbia) may contest the election of Senator Maida Coleman (D-St. Louis) for the position of Senate Minority Floor Leader.

You can view all of Missouri's election results by visiting the Missouri Secretary of State's website at www.sos.mo.gov and go the link entitled "November 7, 2006 General Election Results".

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